自中国对澳大利亚牛肉出口实施保障措施关税、随后韩国也跟进出台同类保障措施以来，行业重点关注被分流牛肉的备选出口市场。

在分析牛肉流向何处以及该分流对本年度剩余时间出口格局的影响前，需要先了解两项措施对应的配额基数。

中国配额为20.5万吨；韩国配额由2025年的196050吨上调至2026年的196206吨。

配额数值依据进口数据统计，而非存在滞后性的出口数据。

8月贸易数据初步显现出牛肉出口分流态势，溢出的牛肉主要流向北美、韩国与日本市场。

东南亚市场此前被预期将增加采购量，但实际进口规模基本持平，略低于2025年水平。

保障措施落地后，对华出口如预期出现下滑。不过目前评估该保障措施的全部影响尚为时过早。

今年前期出口量创下纪录，令同比对比变得复杂，关税带来的区域性影响要等到全年数据出炉后才会清晰显现。

图1：2025年与2026年年初至今出口量对比

日本是今年表现亮眼的市场，年初至今出口吨数较2025年增长18%。

韩国出口量远高于去年同期，年初至今增幅达16%。韩国2026年保障措施于7月中旬启动，触发时间远早于2025年。

这表明出口商预判关税落地，提前安排了货物发运。

图2列出各主要地区年初至今的同比变动幅度，对比2025年与2026年数据。

图2：2026年年初至今出口量相对2025年同期出口量的变动百分比

2026年8月牛肉出口总量为122520吨，较2025年8月下降9%。

对华大地区及韩国出口量继续下滑。

其中对华出口9761吨，同比下降56%；对韩出口17122吨，同比下降20%。

对美出口减少，支撑了市场需求，产品持续流向上述核心市场。

8月，发往中国与韩国的牛肉包含多种分割部位，包括牛肩肉、牛胸肉和肋条肉，说明市场对澳大利亚全品类牛肉产品仍存在稳定需求。

8月屠宰量略低于2025年同期，同比平均下降2%。7月屠宰量降幅更大，与近期出口量走势相符。

屠宰量变化与出口9%的降幅不存在强相关性，由此引出一个疑问：出口商是否会在短期内选择冻库储存存货。

出口商表示，在2027年1月1日配额重置前，年末出口出货量有望回升。

全球贸易环境变化莫测，本年度剩余时间的出口走势仍需密切跟踪。

消息来源：MLA

Since the recent China safeguard tariff on Australian beef exports came into effect, with the Korean safeguard following soon after, industry attention has focused on redirection options for displaced tonnage.

Before examining where this beef was redirected, and what redirection would mean for export flows through the rest of the year, it is worth noting the quota levels underpinning both measures.

China's quota stood at 205,000 tonnes, while Korea's increased from 196,050 tonnes in 2025 to 196,206 tonnes in 2026

Quota figures are based on import data, not export data, which typically lags.

August trade data provided an initial indication of this redirection as excess volumes flowed predominantly into North America, Korea and Japan.

Southeast Asian markets, despite earlier expectations of increased uptake, remained broadly stable and tracked marginally below 2025 data volumes.

Shipments to China eased as expected following the introduction of the safeguard. However, it remains too early to assess the safeguard’s full impact.

Record exports earlier in the year have complicated year-on-year comparisons – meaning the regional effects of the tariff are unlikely to become clear until full-year data figures are available.

Figure 1: Year to date Exports: 2025 vs 2026

Japan has been the standout market this year with year-to-date tonnage up 18% from 2025.

Korea tracked well above last year's figures up 16% year-to-date. Korea's 2026 safeguard was triggered in mid-July well ahead of the date triggered in 2025.

This suggested that exporters brought forward shipments in anticipation of the tariff.

Figure 2 sets out the year-to-date percentage change for each key region, comparing 2025 and 2026.

Figure 2: Year to date 2026 exports vs Year to date 2025 exports: Percentage Change

Total exported tonnage for August 2026 came in at 122,520 tonnes down 9% on August 2025.

Volumes to Greater China and Korea continued to decline.

Shipments to China totalled 9,761 tonnes, down 56% year-on-year, while exports to Korea reached 17,122 tonnes, down 20% on the previous year.

Lower US exports have helped support market demand and the continued movement of product into these key destinations.

A broad range of cuts, including chuck, brisket and rib were shipped to China and Korea throughout August. This points to sustained demand across the wider Australian beef product mix.

Slaughter numbers also tracked slightly below 2025 levels with August reports averaging a 2% year-on-year decline. July reports tracked even lower on trend with recent export volumes.

The trend cannot be strongly correlated with the 9% export decline, raising the question of whether exporters may be turning to freezer storage in the short term.

Exporters have indicated shipments are likely to increase toward year-end, ahead of quota resets on 1 January 2027.

With the global trading environment remaining highly dynamic exports for the remainder of the year will need to be closely monitored.

Source：MLA