自2020–21年度以来，山羊肉产业在产量与市场扩张两方面均实现快速增长，同时屠宰场成交价出现剧烈波动：每公斤胴体重量价格曾从10澳元以上跌至3澳元以下，随后回升至约6澳元。
展望2026年剩余时间，市场焦点集中于当前高供应能否持续，以及在价格上涨与全球不确定性并存的背景下，出口市场将如何反应。澳大利亚国家山羊肉预测委员会已预警，2026年供应可能放缓；第三季度数据将成为判断当前及新兴行业核心趋势的重要依据。
供应与加工
送往加工厂的山羊数量已连续四个财年增长，2024至2025年度达到418万头。相较于2020至2021年度（彼时种群重建制约了出栏量），增幅达290%。目前加工量仍保持向好态势，具体体现在：
2025至2026年度加工量延续增长态势，2025年7至12月累计加工山羊243万头，同比增长22%。
单季度加工量创下1289646头的新高，这也是连续五个季度加工量突破百万头。而在2023至2024财年最后一个季度之前，行业单季度加工量常年不足80万头，当前规模已远超历史水平。
产能增长源于加工行业随产量提升持续扩容，同时海内外市场需求旺盛。
近期加工量居高不下，一方面是加工厂采购山羊以弥补肉羊供给缺口，另一方面养殖端受价格回暖、胴体最低重量标准下调影响，出栏积极性显著提高。
预测委员会预计，2025—2026财年山羊总加工量将达416万头，上半年已完成全年总量的58%。截至2025年12月底的数据尚未显现回落迹象，相关监测工作仍在持续开展。
出口市场
随着产量提升，出口表现持续向好，2024至2025财年出口量与出口额均创下历史新高。
澳大利亚山羊肉出口量达55486吨，销往39个国家和地区，出口额3.84亿澳元。2020至2021财年出口量仅15712吨，覆盖16个市场，出口额1.59亿澳元，市场扩张幅度显著。以下为各细分市场情况：
美国、韩国、中国台湾地区常年位居主要市场行列，中国、加拿大、特立尼达和多巴哥、日本亦是重要市场。
2020-2021财年至2024-2025财年，各大核心市场需求大幅增长：美国增幅149%，韩国444%，中国台湾地区66%，中国5289%，加拿大274%，特立尼达和多巴哥435%，日本86%。
斐济、印度尼西亚、约旦、牙买加、沙特阿拉伯、新加坡、英国等新兴市场也为出口增长提供助力。
2025-2026财年上半年出口总量达34308吨。在美国、韩国及加拿大旺盛需求的拉动下，行业出口有望再度刷新年度纪录。
尽管加工与出口业务整体保持增长、前景向好，但部分市场需求已显现疲软态势，其中中国市场降幅达62%，特立尼达和多巴哥下降13%，这或反映出市场对出口价格上涨较为敏感。
依托充足的加工产能与海外需求，澳大利亚山羊肉产业实现快速发展。2026年，行业将持续紧盯供应及出口动态，重点关注产量回落迹象与主要市场的需求变化。
消息来源：MLA
Goatmeat supply strength meets market shift
Since 2020–21, the goatmeat sector has experienced rapid growth in both production and market expansion, alongside significant over-the-hooks price volatility. Prices fell from above $10/kg carcase weight (cwt) to below $3/kg cwt, before recovering to around $6/kg cwt.
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, attention is turning to whether current high supply levels can be sustained and how export markets will respond amid increased prices and global uncertainty. The National Goatmeat Forecasting Committee has flagged the potential for supply to slow down in 2026, with third-quarter results expected to provide the backdrop to current and emerging key industry trends.
Supply and processing
Goat supply to processing has grown for four consecutive financial years, reaching 4.18 million head in 2024–25. This represents a 290% increase since 2020–21, when herd rebuilding constrained throughput. Further, processing trends continue to track positively with:
Continued growth into 2025–26, with 2.43 million goats processed between July and December 2025, up 22% on the same period the previous year.
A new quarterly processing record of 1,289,646 head – marks the fifth consecutive quarter above 1 million head. Well above historical levels of less than 800,000 head/quarter before the last quarter of 2023–24.
Growth driven by the processing sector expanding in response to increased production and strong international and domestic demand.
Recent high throughput supported by processors sourcing goats to offset low sheep availability, and by producers being motivated to market goats at improved prices and lower minimum carcase weight requirements.
The Forecasting Committee projected total processing of 4.16 million head for 2025–26, with 58% of this already achieved in the first half of the year. Data until the end of December 2025 has not yet shown signs of a slowdown, with further monitoring underway.
Export markets
Export performance has strengthened in line with increased production, with both volume and value reaching record highs in 2024–25.
Australia exported 55,486 tonnes to 39 destinations, valued at $384 million. This compares to 15,712 tonnes exported to 16 markets in 2020–21, valued at $159 million, highlighting the scale of market expansion. Looking at Australian goat meat’s specific markets:
The United States, South Korea and Taiwan have consistently ranked among the top markets, alongside China, Canada, Trinidad & Tobago and Japan.
Demand growth between 2020–21 and 2024–25 has been significant across key markets, including the United States (+149%), South Korea (+444%), Taiwan (+66%), China (+5289%), Canada (+274%), Trinidad & Tobago (+435%) and Japan (+86%).
A broader range of secondary markets has also contributed to growth, including Fiji, Indonesia, Jordan, Jamaica, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the United Kingdom.
Exports in the first half of 2025–26 totalled 34,308 tonnes, suggesting the industry is potentially on track for another record year, driven largely by strong demand from the United States, South Korea and Canada.
While growth and outlook remain positive in processing and export, it’s worth noting that some markets have shown signs of softening demand, including China (-62%) and Trinidad & Tobago (-13%). This may indicate sensitivity to rising export prices.
Australia’s goatmeat industry has expanded rapidly, underpinned by strong processing throughput and export demand. Industry focus will remain on monitoring supply trends and export performance through 2026, particularly for signs of a slowdown in production and shifting demand across key markets.
Source：MLA
