倘若澳大利亚育肥场行业被迫关停，或是严苛监管使其彻底消亡，澳大利亚全国、各州及地方区域经济将会受到怎样的影响？这是一个重大问题，澳大利亚肉类与畜牧局委托德勤经济咨询部开展调研，更新《区域育肥场投资研究报告》。

“不熟悉本行业、脱离农业领域的人，往往不清楚育肥场产业的规模及其经济贡献”。 德勤经济咨询部主管塞德里克・霍奇斯（Cedric Hodges）面对满场行业相关人士，在调研成果发布会上开篇说道。

《区域育肥场投资研究报告》本次已是第五次编制，上一版更新发布于2018年。

所有行业都存在周期波动，有高峰也有低谷。而育肥场行业相比其他产业，具备一项独特优势：既能缓冲整条产业链的周期震荡，自身又存在独立的行业周期。

塞德里克表示：“育肥场产出的牛肉占澳大利亚牛肉出口总量的25%，这一点不少人有所了解。”

“但我们需要让大众清楚，育肥场不仅对澳大利亚整体经济意义重大，各州及地方区域经济同样高度依赖该产业。”

塞德里克解释，贸易条件波动是该行业周期变化的一大诱因。

“贸易条件简单来说，就是产品售价与生产成本之间的比值。”

“放到育肥场行业中，这项指标波动幅度极大。饲料成本是主要影响因素，气候差异或是行业面临的各类外部环境变化，都会让饲料价格产生巨大浮动。”

本次调研开展期间，恰好出现饲料价格走高、肉牛收购价走低的双重承压行情。

行业贡献有多大？

2023至2024财年，育肥场行业为澳大利亚经济带来的直接与间接总增加值达46亿澳元。

“仅一个财年就能创造这样的数值，对澳大利亚经济而言是一笔巨大贡献。”

“数据同时显示，育肥场行业提供了24000个全职就业岗位”。 塞德里克・霍奇斯（Cedric Hodges）说道。

“这个数字甚至超过不少育肥场所在城镇的总人口。”

报告显示，昆士兰州与新南威尔士州是澳大利亚育肥养殖的核心产区。

“尽管这两个州产量占主导，但并未包揽全国全部产能，只是占据绝大多数。”

其余各州中，南澳大利亚州相关产业产值自2017年以来实现翻倍，西澳大利亚州的养殖规模同样不容小觑。

聚焦西部唐斯地区（Western Downs）

为从区域层面评估行业影响，该报告专门对西部唐斯地区展开分析。

“一座存栏3万头的育肥场可创造2500万澳元增加值。对于西部唐斯这类地方行政区来说，这笔经济贡献十分可观。”

若再看当地就业带动效应，育肥场同样发挥着巨大作用。

推演各类假设情景

德勤团队推演了多种假设情景，其中一种便是：倘若育肥场产业彻底消失，澳大利亚经济将呈现何种局面。

“一旦失去育肥场产业，全国经济活动规模将缩减590亿澳元，国内生产总值下滑0.4%。这一数字远高于46亿澳元”。 塞德里克・霍奇斯（Cedric Hodges）表示。

大家或许会产生疑问：行业仅创造46亿澳元增加值，消失为何会造成590亿澳元的经济缺口？塞德里克・霍奇斯（Cedric Hodges）对此作出进一步解释。

“根源在于育肥场产业消失会产生连锁传导效应。相关行业投资环境恶化，各类就业岗位同步缩减。”

“正如之前所说，该产业具备独特性。一旦产业退出，受冲击的不只是育肥行业本身；因其在肉类加工、放牧整条产业链中占据核心地位，上下游相关产业都会连带受损”。 塞德里克・霍奇斯说道。

再换一种假设情景：以西唐斯地区为例，如果当地新建一座存栏1.5万头的育肥场，会给区域经济带来怎样的拉动作用？

“行业行情向好时，扩建是自然选择。以此示范项目测算，新建该育肥场将为全域经济带来283个全职等效岗位（不单是育肥场内岗位），还能为当地新增超6000万澳元经济增加值。”

消息来源：MLA

If the Australian feedlot industry were to be shut down or regulated out of existence how would the Australian, state and regional economies be impacted? This is a big question that Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) commissioned Deloitte Access Economics to investigate to update the Regional Feedlot Investment Study.

“People who are not familiar with the industry or outside agriculture may not realise the size of the feedlot industry and the economic contribution it has.” These were some of the opening words of Cedric Hodges, Director at Deloitte Access Economics, when presenting the findings of their investigation to an auditorium full of industry stakeholders.

This is the fifth time the Regional Feedlot Investment Study has been conducted with the previous update being released in 2018.

All sectors have cycles, peaks and troughs. The feedlot sector has the extra ability (over other sectors) to help smooth cycles in the broader value chain, while also having cycles of its own.

“The feedlot industry accounts for 25% of Australia’s total beef exports. That’s a fact that people might know or appreciate,” Cedric said.

“It’s important to remind people not only how important feedlots are for the Australian economy but also to economies on a state and regional level.”

Part of the cycle that the sector goes through is in terms of trade, Cedric explained.

“Terms of trade is basically the price of what you’re selling relative to the price you had to produce it.”

“In the case of feedlots, this can swing, a lot. The price of feed  contributes to this heavily, and can vary considerably between different climatic conditions or other conditions the sector may be facing,” Cedric said.

During the time that this particular study was conducted, there was a peak seen where feed prices coincided with troughs seen in the price received for cattle.

What was the contribution

The value add of both indirect and direct of the feedlot sector in financial year 23–24 to the Australian economy was $4.6 billion.

“This is a huge contribution to the Australian economy when you consider it is just for the one financial year.

“It was also shown that feedlots supported 24,000 full time jobs,” Cedric said.

“That is a bigger number than some of the towns that some feedlots are operating out of.”

It was shown that Queensland and NSW hold the dominant production when it comes to feedlots within Australia.

“While they are the dominant states, they do not account for all of the production in Australia, just the majority.”

When considering the other states, SA has doubled in value since 2017, and the production of WA is also significant.

A closer look at the Western Downs

To evaluate the impact on a more regional basis, the study explored the Western Downs specifically.

“A 30,000 head feedlot has a large contribution of $25 million in value add. For a local government area such as the Western Downs, that is significant.”

When also evaluating employment for those regions, feedlots continue to contribute significantly.

Considering the ‘what-ifs’

Deloitte looked at some ‘what-ifs’, one being what the Australian economy would look like if the sector didn’t exist.

“The removal of the feedlot sector would result in $59 billion less in economic activity, and 0.4% reduction in GDP. Now that is a lot more than $4.6 billion,” Cedric said.

You might be asking yourself, “How can it be $59 billion less if it is generating $4.6 billion?”, to which Cedric explained further.

“The reason is that the removal of the feedlot industry spills over. It creates fewer conditions for investment and fewer opportunities for employment in other sectors.

“The sector is unique, as we mentioned earlier. We can see this if the sector is removed, not only is there the impact on the sector itself, but because of its key role in the value chain, within meat processing and the grazing value chain, those sectors also feel the impact,” Cedric said.

But, what if the Western Downs, for example, constructed a brand new 15,000 head feedlot? What would the economic impact on that region be?

“If the industry is doing well, naturally, expansion is the next step. If this example feedlot were to be developed, it would create 283 full time equivalent jobs across the economy (not just the feedlot itself) and generate over $60 million in additional value add for the region.”

Source：MLA