核心要点
澳大利亚2026年牛肉产量（胴体重量）预计突破300万吨，创下该国新纪录。
得益于牛只供给充足、全球牛肉需求旺盛以及育肥场出栏量处于历史高位，牛屠宰量预计将达960万头。
2026年全国牛群存栏预计为3080万头。气候条件改善与生产效率提升，使得存栏降幅较此前预期更为平缓。
澳大利亚肉类和畜牧业协会（MLA）最新发布的《澳大利亚肉牛产业预测——9月更新报告》显示，气候条件好转与长期生产效率提升，支撑牛只出栏量维持历史高位，同时放缓了此前预判的牛群存栏缩减幅度。
MLA市场信息经理斯图尔特·布尔表示，这使得牛群前景较此前预期更具韧性。
“从过往经验来看，如此规模的屠宰量通常会伴随全国牛群存栏的大幅萎缩，”布尔称。
“但当下牛群生产能力有所提升。气候条件改善带动繁殖性能提高、生产周转加快，行业得以在保持高出栏量的同时，稳固繁育母牛与牛犊基础种群。”
牛群存栏与产量影响因素
主要预测详情如下：
成年牛屠宰量由2025年930万头增至2026年960万头，随后回落，2027年为920万头，2028年至 880万头。
2025–26年度，育肥场年出栏量首次突破400万头。
2026年平均胴体重达到313公斤。随着屠宰结构向更重的阉牛和小公牛倾斜，加上谷物育肥产能持续扩张，胴体重还将继续上升。
全国牛群存栏预计从2026年3080万头逐步下降，2027年3010万头，2028年2970万头。
全球需求保持旺盛
受全球需求旺盛、多个主要产牛国牛肉供给偏紧支撑，2026年澳大利亚牛肉出口量预计约240万吨。
美国仍是核心需求市场，该国牛群存栏处于75年以来低位，牛只供给有限制约其国内牛肉产量。
布尔表示：“全球基本面依旧利好澳牛肉出口，但出口商正面对更为复杂的贸易环境。”
“澳元走强，加之中国、韩国等市场关税政策调整带来一定阻力，不过澳大利亚广泛的市场准入优势仍是重要支撑。”
活牛出口承压更大。受牛价高企、汇率、运费以及市场竞争挤压进口商利润影响，2026年前七个月活牛出口同比下滑25%。
印尼依旧是澳大利亚最大活牛出口市场，占澳活牛出口总量约79%。
展望后市
布尔表示，尽管存在一定不确定性，但MLA长期预测基于平均气候条件假设，行业正以稳健态势迈入下一阶段。
“到2028年，虽然全国牛群存栏减少、屠宰量下降，但澳大利亚牛肉与小牛产量预计仍高于2025年水平，”布尔称。
“随着牛只供给逐步趋紧，屠宰量预计回落，但胴体重提升与生产效率持续改善，将助力牛肉产量维持高位。”
MLA市场信息团队将于澳大利亚东部标准时间9月23日（周三）上午11点至12点，在2026年9月肉牛预测线上研讨会，发布最新预测数据并解读澳大利亚牛只供给的核心影响因素。
消息来源：MLA
Beef production to exceed 3 million tonnes as cattle herd proves more resilient
Key points
Australian beef production is forecast to exceed 3 million tonnes carcase weight (cwt) in 2026, setting a new national record.
Cattle slaughter is forecast to reach 9.6 million head, supported by strong cattle availability, global beef demand and historically high feedlot throughput.
The national cattle herd is forecast at 30.8 million head in 2026, with improved seasonal conditions and productivity supporting a more gradual contraction than previously forecast.
Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections – September Update shows improved seasonal conditions and long-term productivity gains are supporting historically high cattle turn-off while slowing the herd contraction that was previously forecast.
MLA Market Information Manager Stuart Bull said that was making the herd outlook more resilient than previously anticipated.
“Historically, slaughter at these levels would have been associated with a much sharper contraction in the national herd,” Mr Bull said.
“However, what we’re seeing now is a more productive cattle herd, where improved reproductive performance and faster movement through production systems, supported by improved seasonal conditions, are allowing the industry to sustain high turn-off while maintaining a stronger breeding and calf base.”
Herd and production drivers
Details of the key forecasts include:
Adult cattle slaughter growing from 9.3 million head in 2025 to 9.6 million head in 2026, before easing to 9.2 million in 2027 and 8.8 million in 2028.
Annual feedlot turn-off exceeding four million head for the first time in 2025–26
Average carcase weights hitting 313kg in 2026 and increasing as the slaughter mix shifts towards heavier steers and bullocks, and grainfed production continues to expand.
The national cattle herd forecast to ease from 30.8 million head in 2026 to 30.1 million in 2027 and 29.7 million in 2028.
Global demand remains strong
Australian beef exports are forecast to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, supported by strong global demand and tight beef supplies in several major producing countries.
The United States remains a key source of demand, with its cattle herd at its lowest level in more than 75 years and domestic production constrained by limited cattle availability.
“Global fundamentals remain supportive for Australian beef, although exporters are navigating a more complex trading environment,” Mr Bull said.
“A stronger Australian dollar and changing tariff settings in markets including China and South Korea are creating some headwinds, but Australia’s broad market access remains an important strength.”
Live cattle exports have faced greater pressure, falling 25% year-on-year during the first seven months of 2026 as high cattle prices, exchange rates, freight costs and competition weighed on importer margins.
Indonesia remains Australia’s largest live cattle market, accounting for around 79% of exports.
Looking ahead
Mr Bull said while MLA’s longer-term projections assume average seasonal conditions, the sector enters the next period from a strong position, despite some uncertainty.
“By 2028, Australian beef and veal production is forecast to remain above 2025 levels despite a smaller national herd and lower slaughter,” Mr Bull said.
“As cattle availability gradually tightens, slaughter is expected to ease, but higher carcase weights and continued productivity gains should help maintain strong beef production.”
MLA’s Market Information Team will present the latest projections and discuss the major drivers of Australian cattle supply during the September 2026 Cattle Projections webinar on Wednesday 23 September from 11am–12pm AEST.
Source：MLA
